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Time Details
2025-11-12
17:40
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Market Cap Falls Below Value of Its BTC Holdings: mNAV Premium Vanishes, GBTC-Style Discount Risk Emerges

According to @GracyBitget, MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) market capitalization slid to roughly $64.4 billion after the U.S. market open, dipping below the current market value of its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings (estimated $65–$68 billion) as referenced from Nasdaq market data and Coinglass Bitcoin Treasuries figures. According to Coinglass, MicroStrategy holds 641,692 BTC, about 3% of total BTC supply, anchoring the estimated asset value cited by @GracyBitget. Per @GracyBitget, the loss of MSTR’s market value-to-NAV (mNAV) premium signals investors’ preference for direct BTC exposure over equity proxies when the premium compresses. Citing @GracyBitget, this dynamic threatens the core value-creation logic for digital asset tracker (DAT) equities that rely on maintaining an mNAV premium. @GracyBitget adds that a sustained discount to NAV could mirror the historical GBTC precedent, implying potential mNAV ranges of 0.5–0.8 during stress. For traders, the immediate takeaway is that MSTR’s equity beta to BTC may persist while the mNAV relationship is in flux, making the MSTR-versus-BTC basis (per Nasdaq and Coinglass data cited by @GracyBitget) the key spread to monitor for discount/premium inflection.

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